By Agramont Worldwide Logistics · October 1, 2026
If you ship between Tijuana and San Diego, you’ve probably heard a lot about tariffs this year. The headlines can make it sound like every load crossing the border is about to cost more. The reality is more specific, and for most shippers, more manageable.
Most freight that qualifies under the USMCA still crosses into the U.S. duty-free. Mexican goods that meet the agreement’s rules of origin have kept their preferential access to the U.S. market, even as tariffs on other countries have gone up. In fact, Mexico became the top supplier of U.S. imports in 2026, ahead of the European Union, Canada, and China. More companies are taking advantage, too: about 85% of imports from Mexico were claiming USMCA benefits by January 2026, up from roughly 45% in early 2025.
The exceptions are a handful of sectors hit by separate “Section 232” national-security tariffs:
- Steel and aluminum: 50%
- Passenger vehicles: 25%
- Heavy trucks and large commercial vehicles: 25%
If your freight isn’t in one of those categories and is USMCA-qualified, your day-to-day costs at the border likely haven’t changed much.
USMCA 101: Why It Matters for Border Freight
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced NAFTA in July 2020. It’s the rulebook for trade across North America, and it’s the reason most goods can move between Mexico and the U.S. without paying import duties.
The key idea is rules of origin. To get duty-free treatment, a product has to be made mostly in North America, using enough U.S., Mexican, or Canadian materials, parts, and labor. Each industry has its own thresholds. Cars, for example, need a high share of North American content to qualify.
For shippers, that means two loads that look identical on a truck can be treated very differently at customs. A product that meets the rules and has the right certification of origin crosses duty-free. One that doesn’t meet them, or is missing the paperwork, can face the full tariff rate.
That’s why so much of the current negotiation focuses on rules of origin. Small changes to those thresholds can decide whether a manufacturer’s products qualify, and that ripples all the way down to what gets loaded onto trucks in Tijuana every day.
Where the USMCA Review Stands
The USMCA had its first six-year joint review on July 1, 2026. Mexico and Canada supported a 16-year extension, but the U.S. declined to renew it in its current form.
That doesn’t end the agreement. The USMCA stays in force until 2036, and the three countries now move to annual reviews. For shippers, that means USMCA benefits still apply today, but trade terms will be back on the table every year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Mexico are negotiating one-on-one, and the talks picked up speed in September. Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum spoke by phone in mid-September, and Trump has said a deal is close. The next round of talks was moved to September 28–29 in Washington.
As of October 1, though, no deal has been signed. President Sheinbaum said on September 29 that talks are still open and that Mexico’s goal is to lower the tariffs on steel and vehicles and avoid new ones. Mexico is also offering to buy more U.S. products as part of a deal. Until an agreement is announced, the tariffs on steel, aluminum, vehicles, and heavy trucks remain in place.
What Happens Next: Three Scenarios
No one knows exactly how the talks will end, but most outcomes fall into one of three paths.
1. A deal lowers some tariffs. If the U.S. and Mexico reach an agreement, the most likely changes would involve the tariffs on steel, aluminum, and vehicles. U.S. trade officials have talked about reaching interim arrangements by the end of 2026, with harder issues pushed into 2027. For shippers in those industries, a deal could mean lower costs and a rebound in volume.
2. Talks drag on. If negotiations stall, the current tariffs stay in place and the uncertainty continues. USMCA benefits would still apply to qualifying goods, so most freight wouldn’t see a direct change. The main cost would be continued difficulty planning ahead.
3. New tariffs are added. The U.S. has added tariffs on specific products several times over the past two years, and it could do so again, either on Mexico or on other countries. New tariffs usually come with some advance notice, which often causes a short rush of shipments before they take effect.
Whichever path it takes, the shippers in the best position are the ones who know exactly which of their products qualify under the USMCA and which don’t.
Who’s Feeling It at Otay Mesa
The San Diego–Tijuana region runs on cross-border trade. Tijuana’s maquiladoras assemble imported parts into finished goods that ship north every day, and most of those trucks cross at Otay Mesa.
The impact is uneven. Manufacturers working with steel, aluminum, and automotive parts are under the most pressure. Sectors like medical devices and aerospace, which are big employers in Tijuana, have generally held up better.
There’s one more piece to watch. On January 1, 2026, Mexico raised its own import duties, to between 10% and 50%, on 1,463 product categories from countries it doesn’t have trade agreements with, such as China, India, and South Korea. Imports under the USMCA and Mexico’s IMMEX program (which most maquiladoras use) are exempt, and the higher rates are set to run through December 31, 2026. Manufacturers that buy parts from Asia outside those programs could see higher costs on the way in.
The Ripple Effect on Trucking
Tariffs don’t just affect manufacturers. When one industry slows down, fewer trucks are needed for that freight. When companies rush to ship ahead of a tariff deadline, demand for trucks can spike almost overnight. In past tariff scares, freight groups in Tijuana reported a jump in requests for trucking services as factories hurried to move products north before new duties kicked in.
These swings affect capacity, crossing times, and scheduling. A shipper who plans around them, and works with a carrier who can scale up or down quickly, is much less likely to get caught with delayed loads.
Uncertainty Is the Real Cost
For many shippers, the hardest part isn’t the tariff rate. It’s not knowing what the rate will be three months from now.
That uncertainty makes it harder to quote customers, plan inventory, and commit to production schedules. It can also lead to sudden surges in freight when companies rush to move goods ahead of a possible change, followed by slowdowns after.
The shippers who handle this best are the ones who plan for flexibility instead of betting on one outcome.
What Shippers Can Do Now
- Confirm your USMCA qualification. Ask your customs broker whether your products meet the rules of origin. Qualified goods are your best protection right now.
- Keep your paperwork clean. Certificates of origin and commercial invoices that are complete and accurate help avoid delays and holds at the border.
- Know your exposure. If you work with steel, aluminum, or auto parts, talk with your broker about how current tariffs affect your specific products.
- Build flexibility into your schedule. Leave room in your shipping plans for demand spikes if policy news triggers a rush at the border.
- Work with a partner who knows the border. A carrier with operations on both sides can help you adjust quickly when things change.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do tariffs raise my trucking rates? Not directly. Tariffs are paid to U.S. Customs by the importer of record, not added to the freight bill. They can affect rates indirectly, though, by changing how much freight is moving and how much truck capacity is available.
Is the USMCA ending? No. The agreement stays in force until 2036. Because the U.S. didn’t renew it in July 2026, the three countries now review it every year, which means the terms could change over time.
Do tariffs slow down border crossings? The tariffs themselves don’t change crossing times. What causes delays is incomplete or incorrect paperwork, inspection holds, and surges in volume when many companies rush to ship at once.
How do I know if my products qualify for USMCA benefits? Your customs broker can review your products against the rules of origin and help you prepare the certification of origin. It’s worth doing a fresh review now, since the rules could change during the annual reviews.
Does Mexico charge tariffs too? Yes. Since January 1, 2026, Mexico has charged 10% to 50% duties on more than 1,400 product categories from countries it doesn’t have trade agreements with. Goods imported under the USMCA or the IMMEX program are exempt.
Can I get back the tariffs I paid in 2025? Possibly. In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), including the 25% tariff on Mexican goods that started in March 2025. U.S. Customs is processing refunds through its CAPE system. Talk to your customs broker about whether your past entries qualify.
How Agramont Can Help
Agramont Worldwide Logistics has been moving freight across the border since 2017, with offices and yards in both San Diego and Tijuana. As a certified woman- and minority-owned, asset-based 4PL provider, we run operations across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, with bilingual support on both sides of the border.
When trade policy shifts, our team helps you stay ahead: coordinating crossings, adjusting capacity when volume spikes, and keeping your freight moving.
Have questions about your cross-border shipments? Call our San Diego office at +1 (833) 927-0364 or our Tijuana office at +1 (619) 646-9722.
